Disclaimer: this is to test our approach and should not be used to for policy decision-making. Furthermore, we have observed that reported cases data may skip days, use different diagnostic processes even in the same time series, and data maybe inconsistent across different sources.
Currently only point estimates are provided, without confidence intervals.
Forecast of future confirmed new cases for Italy's regions
Using auto-differentiation on a novel extended SEIR model, we optimize per-area epidemic parameters to forecast future outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic. View 1-page Paper
The following charts show the 6-weeks forecast of future confirmed new cases, given the current
observed data. Data is daily updated from the following three sources:
Friuli Venezia Giulia